It is considered whether there is an interaction between tourism and inflation, an economic and social phenomenon, because of the importance of tourism incomes in national economy and this has been dealt with in this study. The aim this study is to determine a possible causality relation between tourism industry and inflation. The tourism income and monthly consumer price index changes in Turkey between the years 2003-2011 have been used in the study. Seasonality analysis of the variables have been conducted before the causality test, and stability of the variables have been checked by unit root test and VAR analysis have been done. Granger causality test and Wald test have been used for the causality analysis. The results of the study suggest that a causality relationship does not exist between tourism income and inflation in Turkey between the years 2003-2011. Variance analysis conducted shows that tourism income and inflation variables indicate each other at low ratios.
Tourism Revenue, Inflation, VAR Analysis, Granger Causality
|Yazar:||- Aliye Atay KAYIŞ - Şehriban AYGÜN|