ELEKTRİK TÜKETİMİ İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: ÜST ORTA GELİR GRUBU ÜLKELER PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ
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Abstract
Çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye’nin de içinde yer aldığı Üst Orta Gelirli ülkeler için Elektirik tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin araştırılmasıdır. Bu nedenle 1971-2014 dönemi için 22 üst orta gelirli ülkeye ait Elektrik tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenlerinden yararlanılarak oluşturulan panel veri modeli analiz edilmiştir. Yapılan analizde öncelikle serilerin yatay kesit bağımlılığı Pesaran CD (2004)testi ve homojenliği Pesaran ve Yamagata (2008) Homohenlik testi ile araştırılmıştır. Serilerin yatay kesit ve heterojenite içerdikleri belirlendiği için analizlere yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan CADF birim kök testi yöntemiyle sınanmış ve serilerin birinci farkta durağan seriler oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Serilerin uzun dönem ilişkisi ise Westerlund ve Edgerton (2007) Eş Bütünleşme Testi ile değerlendirilmiş; seriler arasımda eşbütünleşme ilişkisi saptanamamıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri; Dumitrescu ve Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testi yardımı ile incelenmiş elektrik tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenleri arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu belirlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak üst orta gelirli ülkeler için Geri Bildirim (Feed Back) hipotezinin geçerli olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Keywords
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for uppur middle income countries that Turkey belongs. For this reason, panel data model which is formed by using electricity consumption and economic growth variables of 22 upper middle income countries for the period 1971-2014 was analyzed. In the analysis, firstly the horizontal cross-section dependence of the series was investigated by using the Pesaran and Yamagata (2008) Homohenity test. As the series were determined to contain cross-sectional and heterogeneity, it was tested by CADF unit root test method which considers the cross-sectional dependency of the analyzes and it was determined that the series were the first stationary series. The long-term relationship of the series was evaluated by Westerlund and Edgerton (2007) Co-Integration Test; There was no cointegration relationship between the series. Causality relations between variables; Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test examined the power consumption and economic growth variables were determined as a bidirectional causality relationship. As a result, it is concluded that Feed Back hypothesis is valid for upper middle income countries.
Keywords
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