TÜRKİYE’DE HAVAYOLU TAŞIMACILIĞI İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN YAPISAL KIRILMALI EKONOMETRİK YÖNTEM YAKLAŞIMIYLA İNCELENMESİ
Author :
Abstract
Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye için havayolu taşımacılığı ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektir. Araştırma 1960-2019 dönemi için yıllık veri kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analizde havayolu taşımacılığını temsilen yolcu ve yük taşımacılığı verileri kullanılmıştır. Ampirik analizde Hatemi-J (2008) Çift Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme testinden yararlanılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme analizi sonucuna göre havayolu taşımacılığı ile ekonomik büyümenin eşbütünleşik olduğu yani uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Son olarak FMOLS (Full Modified Ordinary Least Square) tahmincisi kullanılarak yapılan uzun dönem katsayı tahmini sonucuna göre; yolcu sayısındaki %1’lik artışın ekonomik büyümeyi %0.249 arttırdığı, yük taşımacılığındaki %1’lik artışın ise ekonomik büyümeyi %0.440 arttırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Keywords
Abstract
The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between air transport and economic growth for Turkey. The research was carried out using annual data for the period 1960-2019. In the analysis, passenger and freight transport data were used to represent air transport. In the empirical analysis, Hatemi-J (2008) Double Break Co-integration test was used. According to the result of the cointegration analysis, it was concluded that air transport and economic growth are cointegrated, that is, they act together in the long run. Finally, the long-term coefficients were interpreted using the FMOLS (Full Modified Ordinary Least Square) estimator in the study. According to the estimation result, a 1% increase in the number of passengers increases economic growth by 0.249%, and a 1% increase in freight transport increases economic growth by 0.440%.
Keywords
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