The purpose of this study is to discover the effects of consumer confidence index (CCI), financial services confidence index (FSCI) and credit default swap premiums (CDS) on stocks. In this research, the monthly data of CCI, FSCI and BIST100 index from May 2012 to September 2019, when the financial services confidence index began to be published, and the daily data of the CDS and BIST100 index were used. The effects of the selected macroeconomic variables on the BIST100 index were examined and the findings were presented. In this study, the time series analysis methods were used. In order to investigate the relationship between variables, it is necessary to test whether the series of variables are stationary or not. For this purpose, Lee Strazicich unit root test which also considers the structural breaks of the series was applied. Furthermore, the optimal lag length was determined according to the Akaike information criterion. Additionally, with Toda-Yamamoto test, it was determined whether there was any causality between the variables, and if there was causality, the direction of the relations were defined. According to the Toda-Yamamoto test results, one-way causality was determined from TGE and CDS to BIST100. In addition, a one-way causality was found from BIST100 towards FHGE.
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), Financial Services Confidence Index (FSCI), CDS, BIST100, Structural Breaking Lee-Strazicich Unit Root Test, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test
|Author :||Turan KOCABIYIK -Yaşar ALPTÜRK|
|Number of pages:||149-168|